$30 billion in announced investment since 2022. A data-driven examination of where the capital is flowing, where productive capacity exists, and where the gaps are.
But where is it actually going?
Across 45 projects spanning eight distinct sectors, Mexican states are positioning themselves as major hubs in the global transition to electric vehicles, renewable energy generation, and digital infrastructure.
The map on the right shows the geographic distribution of all announced projects. Each circle represents a facility, and the size indicates the scale of investment. The colors indicate sector: EV manufacturing in red, batteries in green, data centers in blue, semiconductors in orange, and renewable energy in yellow.
The data reveals clear geographic clusters, but clustering alone tells us little about feasibility. The real story lies in the relationship between capital flows and local productive capacity.
But concentration isn't the interesting question.
Six states account for 82% of announced electroindustrial investment: Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Jalisco, Coahuila, and Guanajuato. These states have deep experience in manufacturing and relatively sophisticated supply chains.
Nuevo León alone holds $11.6B in projects (38% of the total), driven by Tesla's paused Gigafactory and existing automotive hubs in Monterrey and Saltillo. Querétaro captures $11.1B through Amazon's $5B AWS region and CloudHQ's $4.8B data center complex.
The chart on the right shows investment by state in billions of dollars. Notice the sharp drop-off after the top six: the remaining 26 states and Mexico City collectively account for just $5.5B.
Economic complexity tells us this is non-trivial. Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) measures the relative concentration of economic activity in a given sector. An RCA above 1.0 means a state has developed specialized capabilities in that sector. An RCA below 1.0 means the state lacks the productive affinity.
We can measure RCA across three dimensions: past product exports (relatedness to existing sectors), worker talent pools (labor skill match), and graduate output in relevant fields (pipeline capacity).
The visualization on the right shows RCA by state for EV manufacturing. Notice the mismatch: states with massive investment (like Querétaro, which hosts AWS and Microsoft data centers) have zero RCA in EV manufacturing. They're receiving capital for sectors they don't historically specialize in.
This creates both opportunity and risk. Opportunity: greenfield operations without legacy constraints. Risk: the need to build entire supply chains from zero, with no existing talent pools or supplier networks.
Mexico's ANUIES network tracks graduate output by field and state. We can match this against investment demand by sector.
The data is stark. Querétaro is receiving $11.1B for data centers and semiconductors. The state produced 153 computer science graduates in 2023—across an entire state. Amazon's Mexico region alone will demand 500+ engineers within 3 years, just for operational staff.
Meanwhile, Mexico City produces 2,847 computer science graduates annually, but zero data center investment was announced in CDMX (the federal government restricts new commercial data infrastructure). Ciudad de México's talent is, in essence, stranded: high supply, zero local demand.
The chart shows the gap: investment in data center states (Querétaro) versus graduate production in those same states in computer science and related fields. The vertical red line marks baseline demand.
Data centers and battery manufacturing demand reliable, low-cost power. Mexico's PRODESEN (electricity planning program) tracks renewable capacity by state. The grid-level feasibility of electroindustrial investment depends on whether renewable energy supply can scale alongside capital deployment.
Querétaro has zero installed renewable capacity and no announced solar or wind projects. Yet it's receiving $11.1B in data centers. This creates a second-order constraint: rapid deployment of compute infrastructure without corresponding energy infrastructure suggests either (a) imports of power from neighboring states, (b) expensive natural gas as bridge fuel, or (c) delays while solar/wind capacity catches up.
Contrast this with Sonora, which has 1,900+ MW of solar capacity installed and operational. Sonora is receiving $3.2B in electroindustrial investment, almost all in line with existing renewable infrastructure.
The chart shows the relationship: states with high renewable capacity (right side) can support energy-intensive manufacturing. States with low capacity but high investment (upper left) face bottlenecks.
The constraint summary:
Where intervention is needed:
The GripPoint approach: Data-driven diagnostics identify the binding constraint for each state-sector pair. Constraint mapping then prioritizes interventions—whether talent, infrastructure, supply chain, or regulatory—by impact and cost. Decision architecture translates constraints into specific policy levers.
This isn't about predicting which investment will succeed. It's about understanding the structural limits to absorption capacity and designing interventions that let markets work faster.